NEWS Politics


275 Baseline Survey report by Professor Smart Sarpong released their research findings on the most preferred candidate in the 2024 elections. The research engaged 59,547 people across the 16 regions of Ghana. Data collection for this survey lasted for 30 days commencing on the 1st of April and ended on the 30th of April .

Per the study, a lot of people are more likely to vote for the NDC rather than the NPP making the NDC lead the polls with 38.8% compared to NPP’s 34.5% with 3.6% of the people likely to vote for other parties and a good percentage of 23% yet to decide who to vote for. This makes the NDC leads the popular vote with people preferring the NDC to the NPP. The NDC leads in 8 regions which include, Bono East, Oti, Volta, Northern, Greater Accra, Savanna, Upper West and Upper East regions. The NPP on the other hand leads in 7 regions which include, Ashanti, Ahafo, Western North, Central, Eastern and Bono regions. Even tough NDC leads in the Western Region, it becomes the undecided region because the Western Region is the region with the most undecided voters with 38%.

Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia is the most preferred candidate with 38.9% of prospective voters likely to vote for him followed closely by John Mahama with 36.1%. 21.4% of prospective voters are yet to decide who amongst the candidates they will vote for with 3.6% likely to vote for other political parties. Dr. Bawumia leads in the Ashanti, Ahafo, Bono, Eastern, Central, Western. North East and the Western North regions. It is suprising to know the Central region will likely to vote for Dr. Bawumia despite the NDC choosing a running mate from the region.

The factors put to testthat informed voters’ decision are Competence, Track record, Ethnicity, Religion, Fianancial inducement and Party affiliation. 50.3% of the prospective voters are likely to vote for a candidate because of competence, 22.5% because of track record, 19.1% because of party affiliation, 3.7% because of financial inducement, 1.2% because of religion, 0.9% because of ethnicity and 2.2% of the voters said no factor comes in mind. It is fair to conclude, Dr. Bawumia is the most preferred candidate 6 months to the 2024 elections. Baseline Survey said this is the first of three surveys including post elections survey for election 2024.

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